Thursday, October 9, 2014

Dollar falls interest rates raise is uncertain

The dollar weakened to a three-week low against the yen as investors pushed back bets for when the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates. The greenback fell versus most of its major peers, dropping the greatest against Asian currencies after minutes of Fed policy makers September meeting, released yesterday, showed officials said slowing global growth and a stronger currency pose potential risks to the U.S. outlook.
The dollar depreciated 0.3% to 107.72 yen and touched 107.61, the weakest since September 17. The U.S. currency slid 0.4% to 1.2770 per euro and reached 1.2791, the most since September 24. The Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major currencies, lost 0.3% to 1,059.37, after dropping 1.5% during the previous three days.

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Wednesday, October 8, 2014

U.S. dollar was boosted before the Fed

The dollar gained against most of its major peers before the Federal Reserve releases minutes of its last meeting as investors weighed the timing of the first interest-rate increase since 2006. The greenback gained 0.3% to $1.2633 per euro after touching $1.2501 on October 3, the strongest since August 2012. It climbed 0.3% to 108.39 yen from yesterday, after falling 1.6% in the past two sessions. The yen was little changed at 136.94 per euro from yesterday, when it touched 136.56, the strongest since September 8.

The Fed, which meets October 28-29, is on track to end a program of stimulatory bond purchases this month. Futures’ trading shows a 45% likelihood that the U.S. central bank will raise rates to 0.5% or higher by the end of July. The target rate has been maintained in a range of zero to 0.25% since 2008 to support the economy. The U.S. economy is seen expanding 3.1%, compared with a 3% pace forecast in July, the IMF said.

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Monday, October 6, 2014

the Canadian dollar, six months low

The Canadian_dollar fell to its lowest point in six months against the U.S. dollar after the nation posted an unexpected trade deficit in August, supporting the Bank of Canada’s cautious outlook on the economy. The currency rose against most of its other major peers after data showed the jobless rate in the U.S., Canada’s largest trading partner, fell to a six-year low in September.

The Bank of Canada has held its benchmark interest rate at 1% for four years and maintained last month it is as likely to lower borrowing costs as raise them while it waits for signs of a sustained export recovery that can power economic growth. The Loonie fell as low as 1.1271 per U.S. dollar, the least since March 20, before closing down 0.8% at 1.1244.

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Thursday, October 2, 2014

Gold on its lowest price in 8 months

Gold fell to extend a weekly drop as investors assessed prospects for higher U.S. interest rates before the world’s biggest economy reports monthly payrolls. Platinum dropped to a five-year low, set for the biggest weekly loss since June 2013.
Gold is moving closer to erasing this year’s gains. An accelerating U.S. economy means investors are shunning haven investments even after the U.S. expanded sanctions against Russia and stepped up its campaign against Islamic State. Improving data have strengthened the dollar and prompted the Federal Reserve, on track to announce the end of its bond-buying program this month, to assess whether the economic recovery can withstand higher borrowing costs.

Bullion for immediate delivery slid as much as 0.3 %to $1,211.06 an ounce and was at $1,211.56, down 0.6% this week. The metal touched $1,204.57 on September 30, the lowest since January 2. The Dollar Spot Index has risen 0.2% in the past five days and is heading for its seventh week of gains, the longest stretch since June 2010. Gold typically trades counter to the dollar. U.S. employers added 215K jobs in September, according to the estimate before Labor Department figure today. The increase in August was 142K. Gold for December delivery fell 0.2 percent to $1,212.50 on the Comex in New York. Futures are set for a fifth weekly loss, the longest such run since January 2013.

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Wednesday, September 17, 2014

OPEC and WTI supply may shrank

U.S. crude supplies probably shrank by 1.5 million barrels last week to 357.1 million, according to estimate before an Energy Information Administration report today. That would be a fifth weekly decline. Gasoline inventories fell by 125K barrels to 212.2 million during the week ended September 12, according to the forecast. Distillate supplies, which include heating oil and diesel, rose by 750K barrels to 128.2 million. West Texas Intermediate traded near the highest price in almost two weeks after OPEC’s secretary general said the group may cut crude-output targets next year. Futures were little changed in New York after advancing 2.1% yesterday. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ daily output target may fall by 500K barrels to 29.5 million barrels in 2015, Abdalla El-Badri said at OPEC’s secretariat in Vienna.

In the U.S. the top general said he would support sending advisers to accompany Iraq troops into battle against Islamic State if necessary. WTI for October delivery was at $94.75 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 13 cents at 12:05 p.m. Singapore time. The contract gained $1.96 to $94.88 yesterday, the highest close since Sept. 3. The volume of all futures traded was about 28 percent above the 100-day average. Prices have decreased 3.7% this year.

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Tuesday, September 16, 2014

West Texas Intermediate crude recouped losses before the meeting

West Texas Intermediate crude recouped losses to trade near the highest closing level in more than a week before data forecast to show inventories declined last week. Futures were little changed, having earlier lost as much as 0.4% in New York. U.S. crude inventories probably shrank by 1.5 million barrels last week to 357.1 million, according the estimate before data from the Energy Information Administration tomorrow. Federal Reserve officials meet to review policy from today.

WTI for October delivery traded 10 cents lower at $92.83 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, having lost as much as 37 cents to $92.55 a barrel. The volume of all futures traded was about 22% below the 100-day average for the time of day. Prices have decreased 5.6% this year.

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Wednesday, August 27, 2014

WTI near a three-day high

West Texas Intermediate traded near a three-day high before a government report forecast to show crude stockpiles dropped for a second week in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. U.S. gasoline inventories probably slid by 1.6 million barrels in the week ended August 22, according to the estimate. The API in Washington reported a decline of 3.2 million, Bain Energy said. Distillate-fuel supplies, including heating oil and diesel, are projected to remain at 121.5 million barrels after three weeks of decreases. The industry report yesterday showed a gain of 2.4 million. The API collects information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines, while the government requires that reports be filed with the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm. In Iraq, the president of the Kurdish Regional Government, Massoud Barzani, said he’s asked Iran for ammunition to fight insurgents, according to the Persian Gulf nation’s Mehr news agency. The conflict in Iraq, the second-biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, has spared oil facilities in the south, home to about three-quarters of its crude output.

Futures rose 0.3% in New York. Crude inventories probably shrank by 2.5 million barrels to 360 million last week, according to the estimate before data from the Energy Information Administration today. The American Petroleum Institute was said to have reported that supplies fell by 1.3 million barrels. Iran is joining efforts to back Iraqi Kurds battling Islamic State militants who have captured swathes of northern Iraq. WTI for October delivery was at $94.10 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 24 cents. It climbed 51 cents to $93.86 yesterday, the highest close since August 21. The volume of all futures traded was about 52 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day. Prices are down 4.4 percent this year.

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Tuesday, August 19, 2014

The waited crude oil inventories report

U.S. gasoline inventories probably shrank by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended August 15, according to the estimate. Distillate stockpiles, including heating oil and diesel, are forecast to have decreased by 300K barrels. Refinery utilization probably slid by 0.45 percentage points to an average 91.15% of capacity, a survey shows. In Iraq, the U.S. will continue “limited” air strikes against Islamic State insurgents, President Barack Obama said yesterday. The U.S. conducted 35 fighter, bomber and drone attacks over the past three days, disrupting their approach on the city of Erbil and allowing Iraqi and Kurdish forces to recapture the Mosul dam. The conflict in Iraq, the second-biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, has spared the south, home to about three-quarters of its crude production. The nation pumped 3 million barrels a day last month.

West Texas Intermediate advanced for the second time in three days before supply data that may signal the strength of fuel demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Futures climbed as much as 0.7% in New York. Crude stockpiles probably fell by 1.75 million barrels to 365.3 million last week, expectations say. WTI for September delivery, which expires tomorrow, gained as much as 64 cents to $97.05 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $96.66. The more-active October contract was up 41 cents at $94.16. The volume of all futures traded was about 8.8 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day. Front-month prices declined 1.8 percent this year.

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Thursday, August 7, 2014

Euro little changed after Draghi rate pledge

The euro was little changed after the European Central Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged and President Mario Draghi said interest rates will stay at present levels for an extended period.

The euro traded at $1.3379 after sliding to $1.3333 yesterday, the weakest level since November 8. The euro-area recovery is moderate and uneven, and inflation expectations remain firmly anchored, Draghi told reporters in Frankfurt.

The euro has weakened more than 4 percent versus the dollar since May 8, when Draghi signaled policy makers would ease monetary policy the following month if needed. It extended losses since June 5, the day ECB policy makers lowered the refinancing rate and moved the deposit rate below zero for the first time.

The policy meeting comes against the backdrop of mounting political crisis. Russia has massed troops along its border with Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin retaliated yesterday against European Union and U.S. sanctions by ordering restrictions on food imports.

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Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Pound falls first time in three days as shop prices drop

The pound fell for the first time in three days versus the dollar as a report showed U.K. shop prices dropped by a record last month, indicating inflation pressure remains subdued.
Sterling weakened all but two of its 16 major counterparts as separate data showed U.K. industrial output climbed less than analysts forecast in June. Industrial production increased 0.3 percent after sliding a revised 0.6 percent in May, the Office for National Statistics said.
The pound fell 0.3 percent to $1.6839 after climbing 0.4 percent in the previous two days. Sterling dropped to $1.6814 on Aug. 4, matching the lowest level since June 12. 
The British Retail Consortium said today prices at stores fell an annual 1.9 percent, the most since the series began in 2006. Food price inflation slowed to a record low 0.3 percent from 0.6 percent.
Manufacturing production increased 0.3 percent in June from the previous month, the U.K. statistics in London said. Factory output dropped 1.3 percent in May, the most since January 2013.
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Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Pound Rises for Second Day Versus Euro on Services Growth

The pound rose for a second day against the euro as a report showed U.K. services activity grew at a faster pace in July, exceeding analysts’ estimates.
Sterling strengthened against most of its major peers as Markit Economics said its purchasing managers’ index climbed to 59.1 last month from 57.7 in June. 

Ten-year government bonds fell for the first time in three days, with yields rising from the lowest close since May. Sterling was little changed at $1.6871 after falling to $1.6814 yesterday, matching the least since June 12. Jones estimates the pound will strengthen to $1.7250 and 75 pence per euro by the end of this year, he said.

Bank of England officials will keep the benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent at the end of this month’s monetary policy meeting on Aug. 7, according to economists.

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Thursday, July 31, 2014

Jobless Claims in U.S. in Past Month Drop to Eight Year Low

Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment insurance benefits over the past month than at any time in more than eight years, signaling employers are hanging on to workers as demand improves.

The four weeks average of jobless claims, considered a less volatile measure than the weekly figure, dropped to 297,250, the lowest since April 2006, from 300,750 the prior week.
Claims in the period ended July 26 climbed to 302,000, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, from a revised 279,000 the prior week that was the lowest since 2000.

Federal Reserve officials yesterday continued to pare monthly asset purchases as the job market strengthens and the threat of disinflation diminishes. Nonetheless, policy makers said the labor market still has plenty of room for improvement, even after a drop in unemployment.

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Monday, July 28, 2014

Euro Area Inflation Seen Sticking Low

When the European Central Bank unleashed a stimulus barrage in June, it cautioned that the economy would take some time to respond. Data due this week may test its patience. The inflation rate remained at 0.5 percent for a third month in July, according to estimation.

The unemployment rate remain unchanged at 11.6 percent in June, a separate survey shows. That may fuel policy makers’ concern that annual price gains will become entrenched at a fraction of the ECB’s goal of just under 2 percent, and increase calls for further action.

The ECB unveiled a range of measures including a negative deposit rate and targeted long-term loans last month. While the package has helped push the average yield on bonds from Europe’s most-indebted nations to a record low and bolstered manufacturing and services in a vote of confidence, it has yet to show its impact on prices, growth and lending, as geopolitical tensions threaten to undermine the recovery.
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Thursday, July 24, 2014

Gold dropped below $1,300.00

Gold fell for a third day in London, reaching a one week low, as the outlook for an improving U.S. economy and stronger dollar reduced demand for a haven. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose to a record yesterday and earnings of companies including Facebook Inc. topped estimates. The dollar was little changed after reaching a five-week high versus a basket of 10 major currencies. 

On the other hand, Gold fell to the lowest level in a week as a rally in equities damped demand for an alternative investment amid concern that physical consumption is faltering. Data yesterday showed gold consumption in China, which surpassed India as the largest user last year, fell 19 percent in the first half of 2014. The metal isn’t likely to get support from Indian demand as import restrictions remain unchanged. 

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Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Weak Euro coincides with ECB expectations

Euro slid to eight month lows against the dollar on Tuesday after data revealed consumer price inflation in the U.S. met expectations in June, which sent investors betting the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner in 2015 than later, especially if the labor market continues to improve.

On Tuesday, the pair dropped below 1.3500, decisively breaking below 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level to test a very important support near 1.3480 zone. Sustained trading below this support area has the potential to continue exerting pressure on the pair initially towards an intermediate support near 1.3430 level. 

The pair in the near term might continue depreciating towards 1.3350 support level. Meanwhile, any bounce back from this support region now seems to confront with an immediate resistance near 1.3520 area, which if conquered could possibly boost the pair back towards 1.3600 horizontal resistance area.

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Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Gold traded near three months low

Gold traded near the lowest price in more than three weeks after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said benchmark rates could increase sooner than expected if inflation and the job market pick up faster than anticipated, even as stimulus is still needed. Bullion slid 3.3 percent in the previous two days, the biggest two-day drop this year. Yellen will testify to lawmakers in Washington for a second day today. Gold dropped 28% in 2013 on expectations the Fed will scale back stimulus. Prices rebounded 8 percent this year as policy makers had pledged to keep interest rates low after bond buying ends and as unrest in the Middle East and Ukraine spurred demand for a haven. Gold for immediate delivery added 0.3% to $1,297.71 an ounce. It fell to $1,292.26 yesterday, the lowest since June 19. Gold for August delivery was little changed at $1,298.30 on the Comex in New York.

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Monday, July 14, 2014

Gold headed for the biggest decline in almost seven months

Gold headed for the biggest decline in almost seven months as Portuguese banking concerns eased and equities advanced, diminishing demand for haven assets. Portuguese 10-year government bonds were set for the biggest two-day advance in a month on speculation that Portugal would contain financial woes at one of its banking groups. The drop comes after gold capped the longest run of weekly gains since 2011, partly as missed payments on notes by a parent company of Portugal’s second-biggest bank renewed concern that Europe hasn’t resolved its debt crisis. EU spokesman Simon O’Connor said July 11 that the country has taken steps to shore up its financial system. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Jeffrey Currie reiterated his outlook for lower bullion prices as confidence increases in the economic recovery and inflation remains tame. 
Gold_futures for August delivery fell 2.2% to $1,307.50 an ounce. A close at that price will make the biggest loss for a most-active contract since December 19.

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Friday, July 11, 2014

Gold Heads for Longest Weekly Rally Since March

Gold traded near the highest in almost four months, heading for the longest run of weekly gains since March, as concerns about Europe’s economy and the Middle East boosted haven demand. Palladium was near a 13-year high. Gold rallied as much as 1.3 percent yesterday after a company linked to Portugal’s second-largest bank missed debt payments, re-igniting concern about Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis. Banco Espirito Santo SA said today it has exposure of 1.18 billion euros ($1.6 billion) to companies of Grupo Espirito Santo. Israel called up 33K reserve soldiers, intensifying its response to Hamas rocket attacks from Gaza. Bullion for immediate delivery was little changed at $1,335.59 an ounce after rising as much as 0.2% to $1,338.99 an ounce.
The metal rallied to $1,345.17 yesterday, the highest price since March 19, and is heading for a sixth weekly climb. Gold for August delivery traded at $1,336.40 an ounce on the Comex in New York on volumes that were 33% below the 100-day average for this time of the day.

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Thursday, July 10, 2014

WTI Crude Heads for Record-Long Slump as Supplies Expand

West Texas Intermediate crude headed for a record-long slump as government data showed an expansion in supplies where the oil is stored, and demand for gasoline weakened. Brent, Europe’s benchmark, was little changed in London. Futures declined as much as 0.7% in New York. A lower closing price would be the 10th in a row, marking the longest retreat since the contracts began trading in 1983, New York Mercantile Exchange data show. Crude stockpiles rose the most since January at Cushing, Oklahoma. Gasoline inventories increased and consumption fell, according to Energy Information Administration figures.
OPEC predicted that demand for its crude will decline in 2015 to the lowest in six years. WTI for August delivery dropped as much as 74 cents to $101.55 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $101.96. The contract slid $1.11 to $102.29 yesterday, the lowest close since May 16. The volume of all futures traded was about 20% above the 100-day average for the time of day. Crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI and the biggest U.S. oil-storage hub, climbed by 447K barrels to 20.9 million. Supplies nationwide dropped by 2.4 million barrels to 382.6 million.

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Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Crude oil drop after the EIA data

West Texas Intermediate crude fell for a ninth day, the longest stretch of decreases since 2009, after supplies rose at Cushing, Oklahoma, the contract’s delivery point. Brent slipped to a one-month low amid signs Libyan oil exports will gain. Cushing stockpiles rose by 447 Million barrels، barrels to 20.9 million last week, #Energy Information Administration data showed. Total inventories dropped 2.37 million barrels to 382.6 million, in line with the 2.5 million-barrel U.S. supply drop projected. Libya plans to gradually boost exports to avoid disrupting the market, said Samir Kamal, the nation’s governor to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. WTI for August delivery dropped 86 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $102.54 a barrel. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $102.59 before the release of the report. Futures touched $102.40, the lowest level since June 6. Prices have risen 4.2%this year.
Gasoline stockpiles rose 579K barrels to 214.3 million. A 400K barrel decline was projected, according to the estimate. Iraq’s south, home to more than three-quarters of its crude output, remained unaffected by fighting between government forces and insurgents from a breakaway al-Qaeda group known as the Islamic State. The country is the second-largest producer in OPEC.

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Monday, July 7, 2014

Pound Weakens After Hitting 7-Year High

The pound weakened versus the dollar on speculation a rally that took Britain’s currency to a five-year high may fade as the Federal Reserve moves toward raising interest rates. Sterling also declined after data showed bullish bets as measured by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission had climbed to the highest level since 2007, reducing the potential for fresh buying impetus. Predictions said the U.K. central bank will leave its benchmark rate at a record-low 0.5% on July 10. The Fed is winding down its asset purchase program. Speculation that the Bank of England will be the first major central bank to increase rates helped push the pound 11.3 percent stronger in the past year, the best performer among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro rose 1.5 percent, while the dollar fell 4.9%. Sterling slipped 0.1% to $1.7140 after rising to $1.7180 on July 4, the highest level since October 2008. It rose 0.7% last week, completing the longest run of weekly gains since the period ended September 21, 2012.

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Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Euro Drops on Bets ECB Policy Will Weaken Currency

ECB officials led by President Mario Draghi will leave monetary policy unchanged tomorrow, according to analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. The Frankfurt-based central bank unveiled unprecedented stimulus measures at its previous meeting on June 5, including negative deposit rates that tend to weaken a currency. Markit Economics said its construction index, based on a survey of purchasing managers, increased to 62.6 from 60 in May. That’s the highest since February and compares with the forecast for a decline to 59.8. The index has been above the 50 level that indicates expansion for more than a year. An index of housing activity increased to 66.6 in June from 62.7 in May, Markit said. That’s the highest since the gauge rose to 67.3 in January, which was the strongest reading in more than a decade. Commercial building grew the fastest in five months. The euro fell versus the dollar for a second day as investors prepare for speeches from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. The 18-nation currency fell after French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said in an interview with Les Echos newspaper that the ECB needs to go further to weaken euro. Policy makers meet in Frankfurt tomorrow.

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Friday, June 27, 2014

Euro economy; swinging between growth, expansion and slow inflation.

While Germany is scheduled to grow 2 percent this year, Italy will expand 0.3 percent in 2014, To ensure its debt is sustainable, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is under pressure to push through spending cuts and foster growth in an economy burdened by the threat of deflation and the highest number of people unemployed in modern history.
The euro is poised to decline against its counterparts in the U.Sas well as those inemerging markets such as Brazil amid monetary easing from the European Central Bank, according to Barclays Plc, The dollar fell as a Commerce Department report showed U.S. consumer purchases increased 2 percent last month after being little changed in April. U.S. jobless-benefit claims declined less than forecast last week, another report showed. They decreased to 312,000, versus a Bloomberg survey’s projection for 310,000. The dollar gained 0.2 percent to $1.3607 per euro.

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Thursday, June 26, 2014

WTI on three days high, Brent decline

West Texas Intermediate crude pared gains amid speculation that an Obama administration ruling on U.S. fuel exports would have limited impact on global markets. Brent’s premium narrowed as Iraq pledged to increase exports. WTI was traded 0.4 percent higher in New York, trimming an earlier advance of as much as 1.4%. Brent declined 0.7% in London, narrowing its spread against WTI to the least in a week. The Commerce Department granted Pioneer Natural Resources Co.’s request to classify stabilized condensates as petroleum products eligible for export, the company said. Oil production in Iraq remained unaffected as the government promised higher crude exports in July. Crude stockpiles reached 399.4 million barrels in April, the highest level since the EIA started publishing weekly data in 1982. Inventories probably fell by 1.7 million barrels.

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Tuesday, June 24, 2014

U.S. housing regaining footing as supply improves

U.S. home resale rose more than expected in May and the stock of properties for sale was the highest in more than one and a half years years, suggesting that housing was pulling out of a recent slump. The National Association of Realtors said on Monday existing home sales increased 4.9% to an annual rate of 4.89 million units. May's increase was the largest since August 2011. The forecast was that the sales will rise only 2.2% to a 4.73 million-unit pace last month. Sales, which rose in all four regions, were driven by the single-family home segment, the largest portion of the market. They likely reflected a pause in mortgage rates. The housing recovery stalled in the second half of 2013 as interest rates increased and prices surged against the backdrop of a dwindling supply of properties available for sale. Despite the second consecutive month of gains, sales were down 5.0% compared to May last year. They remain down 9% from a peak of 5.38 million units hit in July. Still, the increase in sales will be welcomed by the Federal Reserve, which is closely watching the housing market as it contemplates the future course of monetary policy.
 Fed Chair Janet Yellen has warned a prolonged slump could undermine the economy. The relatively bullish housing report offered further evidence that the economy has regained strength after weakening sharply in the first quarter. Rising sales and a steady pace of groundbreaking should help residential investment to modestly rebound in the second quarter after two straight quarters of decline. A separate report showed manufacturing expanding strongly in June. Financial data firm Markit said its preliminary or "flash" U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 57.5, the highest reading since May 2010, from 56.4 in May. A reading above 50 signals expansion in economic activity. While home sales are rising, pockets of weakness remain. First-time buyers, a necessary ingredient for a strong housing market, continue to hug the sidelines. Many have also been priced out by stringent lending practices. Last month, first-time buyers accounted for only 27 percent of the transactions, hovering near their lowest level since the Realtors group started tracking the series. A market share of 40 percent to 45 percent for first-time buyers is considered by economists and real estate professionals as ideal. Investors, who have propped up housing are retreating fast, accounting for only 16 percent of transactions in May. The inventory of unsold homes on the market increased 6.0 percent from a year-ago to 2.28 million in May, the highest level since August 2012. In May, the month's supply of existing homes increased to 5.6 months from 5.7 months in April. Six months' supply is normally considered a healthy balance between supply and demand. Still, the improving supply is helping to temper price increases. The median home price increased 5.1 percent from a year ago, the smallest increase since March 2012.

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Monday, June 23, 2014

Euro-Zone, More loans for more liquidity…

The shared currency edged lower against the greenback on Friday, but still ended the week higher after the Federal Reserve indicated that its isn’t going to raise interest rates for a long period of time. The greenback remained under pressure after the Fed gave no indication of when interest rates could start to rise at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. In addition, the Fed’s forecast of where interest rates might reach in the long term fell from 4% to 3.75%. The central bank cut its bond purchases by $10 billion a month, to $35 billion, saying there was "sufficient underlying strength" in the U.S. economy to continue tapering. Despite this, the Fed also lowered its forecast for growth this year to a range of 2.1% to 2.3% from 2.8% to 3.0% previously, due to "unexpected contractions" in the first quarter as a result of the unusually harsh winter.

The Fed acknowledged the recent increases in inflation and drop in unemployment, but Chair Janet Yellen said no formula was in place for when interest rates would start to rise. In the blue region, The ECB plans to offer banks targeted long-term loans, or TLTROs, of as much as 400 billion Euros ($544 billion) for four years, with the condition that they boost credit to companies and households. By offering the loans at a small premium to current ultra-low rates, the ECB is signaling that borrowing costs will eventually increase. Banks have an incentive to use the program if they believe rates would be higher at the end of the loan period. The ECB’s benchmark rate is 0.15%. Euro dipped 0.06% to 1.3598 late Friday, but posted a weekly gain of 0.47%.

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Thursday, June 19, 2014

WTI decline as production rose

WTI crude slid 0.4 percent today to $105.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The grade is up 4.3 percent this quarter. Brent, the European benchmark, climbed 0.7 percent to $114.26, for a 6 percent gain in the quarter. U.S. gross domestic product will increase 2.2 percent this year and 3 percent in 2015, following a 1.9 percent gain in 2013, U.S. crude production increased 17,000 barrels a day to 8.477 million, the most since October 1986. Output has surged this year as a combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has unlocked supplies trapped in shale formations, including the Bakken in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford in Texas.

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Wednesday, June 18, 2014

First export drop in more than a year in Japan

Japan’s exports fell in May for the first time in 15 months on weak demand from the U.S. and Asia, Outbound shipments decreased 2.7% from a year earlier, the finance ministry said in Tokyo today, steeper than a median forecast for a 1.3 percent decline as estimated. Imports dropped 3.6%, with the trade deficit narrowing to 909 billion yen ($8.9 billion).adding to challenges for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as he tries to steer the economy through a forecast contraction this quarter. Masahiko Shibayama, chairman of the lower house cabinet committee, Data showed U.S. industrial production expanded more than forecast in May, a sign gains in manufacturing are supporting growth as the U.S. economy picks up.
The New York Fed’s Empire manufacturing report rose to 19.28, exceeding the average estimate, a separate report indicated. The dollar rose after a measure of U.S. inflation accelerated in May faster than forecast as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and policy makers meet to consider further reductions in monetary stimulus. Yen fell 0.3 percent to 102.15.

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Tuesday, June 17, 2014

The Sterling is on four and a half years high

The pound fell for the first time in five days against the dollar after U.K. inflation dropped to its lowest rate in 4 1/2 years in May, damping speculation the Bank of England will raise interest rates sooner than forecast. Sterling weakened against most of its 16 major peers. The yield on two-year U.K. government bonds earlier reached the highest since 2011 after policy maker David Miles hinted that minutes of its June 5 meeting will show the central bank is moving closer to raising interest rates, according to the London-based Times newspaper. Governor Mark Carney said on June 12 that borrowing costs may rise sooner than economists expect.
Sterling slid less than 0.1% to $1.6975 at after rising to $1.7011 yesterday, the highest since August 6, 2009. The pound was little changed at 79.91 pence per euro after yesterday appreciating to 79.59 pence, the strongest level since Oct. 1, 2012. The pound strengthened 8.9 percent in the past year, the best performer after the New Zealand dollar among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro gained 1.7 percent and the dollar was little changed. Regarding the inflations measures, Consumer prices rose 1.5% in May, the least since October 2009, the Office for National Statistics said. That compared with a n forecast of 1.7%. Inflation has been at or below the central bank’s 2 percent target for six months, the longest stretch since 2009.

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Monday, June 16, 2014

U.S. Crude Drops From 9-Month High as Gains Seen Excessive

West Texas Intermediate fell as a technical indicator shows last week’s increase to the highest price in nine months was excessive. Futures slid as much as 0.4 percent in New York. WTI’s relative strength index closed above 70 for a third day yesterday, signaling prices rose too quickly to sustain further gains. Iraq’s army pummeled the positions of Sunni Muslim insurgents who have captured large chunks of territory in the country’s north as the U.S. weighed a military intervention to help the government. WTI for July delivery fell as much as 46 cents to $106.44 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $106.54 at 4 p.m. Sydney time. The contract lost 1 cent yesterday after ending last week’s trading at $106.91, the highest close for the front month since Sept. 18.

The volume of all futures traded was about 4% above the 100-day average. Prices are up 8.3% this year. In the U.S., crude inventories probably shrank by 750,000 barrels in the week ended June 13, according to the projections before an EIA report tomorrow. Supplies decreased the prior two weeks to 386.9 million barrels, according to the Energy Department’s statistical arm. Gasoline stockpiles slid by 550K barrels last week while distillates, including heating oil and diesel, expanded by 350K barrels, expectations said. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute in Washington is scheduled to release its own supply data today.

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Friday, June 13, 2014

Gold is jumping over $1,270 per ounce

Gold jumped to $1,270 as The dollar fell for a second day as government reports showed the U.S. economy remains sluggish, backing speculation the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates at historically low levels and Jobless claims climbed by 4,000 in the week ended June 7, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington.
The forecast was a 310,000. U.S. retail sales rose 0.3 percent last month followed a revised 0.5 percent gain in April that was much larger than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington.

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